60 mln di veicoli elettrici nel 2040, secondo BNEF

con 13 commenti

Il nuovo rapporto della BNEF ( Bloomberg New Energy Financ ) , prevede che entro il 2040, il  55% di tutte le vendite di auto nuove e il 33% della flotta globale saranno elettriche.

Secondo gli analisti di BNEF esistono diversi fattori che indicano un cambiamento globale, verso l’EV.

 

I prezzi delle batterie agli ioni di litio sono crollati negli ultimi anni.

 Gli analisti di BNEF hanno monitorato il mercato delle batterie fin dal 2010. In quel periodo il pacco batterie costava mediamente $ 1.000 / kWh. Nel 2017 mediamente il prezzo è sceso a $ 209 / kWh. Una diminuzione in sette anni del 79%. Anche la densità energetica media delle batterie EV sta migliorando intorno al 5-7% all’anno.

 

BNEF

 

Grazie a contributi governativi per l’acquisto di veicoli elettrici, il mercato è in crescita.

 Il governo Cinese sta costringendo le case automobilistiche a velocizzare lo sviluppo dei veicoli elettrici. Nel 2017, il 21% di tutte le vendite EV globali erano in sole 6 città cinesi, tutte con restrizioni significative all’acquisto e all’utilizzo di nuovi veicoli con combustione interna

 In Europa, lo spettro di potenziali divieti sta spingendo gli acquirenti e le case automobilistiche lontano dal diesel. I problemi di qualità dell’aria urbana sono diventati rapidamente pilastri centrali della politica municipale e le vendite di veicoli elettrici ne stanno beneficiando.

 

Le case automobilistiche hanno annunciato piani  importanti di sviluppo nei prossimi dieci anni , per i veicoli elettrici .

I modelli di autovettura elettrica, passeranno dai 155 di fine 2017 ai 289 entro il 2022. L’azienda cinese Chang’an , entro il 2025, produrrà solo veicoli elettrici.

 

Le nostre ultime previsioni mostrano vendite di veicoli elettrici (EV) in aumento da 1,1 milioni di record in tutto il mondo nel 2017, a 11 milioni nel 2025 e poi a 30 milioni nel 2030 quando diventano meno costosi rispetto alle automobili a combustione interna .

 

 

La Cina  è e continuerà ad essere il più grande mercato EV del mondo fino al 2040.

 

 

Le previsioni di BNEF , prevedono che le vendite di veicoli elettrici, in Cina , rappresentino il 50 per cento , del mercato globale, nel 2025. Nel 2030 questa percentuale scenderà al 39 per cento.

 

La spinta della Cina riguarda tanto la politica industriale quanto i problemi di sicurezza ambientale o energetica. La Cina sta costruendo campioni nazionali e un ecosistema di e-mobility per quello che vede come un’importante industria strategica nei prossimi decenni.  

Le politiche nazionali, regionali e municipali in Cina stanno spingendo in avanti il ​​mercato EV. Le sovvenzioni nazionali verranno gradualmente eliminate entro il 2020, ma a partire dal 2019 le case automobilistiche saranno costrette a entrare in veicoli elettrici attraverso il sistema di credito “New Energy Vehicle

 

Secondo l’analisi, nel 2025 in Cina le vendite di EV saranno il 20 per cento di tutti i veicoli passeggeri.In quella data L’Europa arriverà al 14%, seguita dagli Stati Uniti al 11%.
 

Nel 2040 si prevede di vendere circa 60 milioni di veicoli elettrici, pari al 55% del mercato globale dei veicoli commerciali leggeri.

 

 

L’analisi prevede che verso la metà del 2020 le vendite di veicoli a benzina o diesel, inizi a diminuire. 
 

Le auto “a mobilità condivisa” saranno un elemento piccolo ma in crescita.  Le prospettive a lungo termine di BNEF  vedono crescere  a breve termine le vendite di veicoli elettrici leggeri, Aumenterà, inoltre, la quota di mercato

 

La crescita dei veicoli elettrici richiederà un drastico ampliamento della catena di approvvigionamento delle batterie agli ioni di litio.

 

La capacità di produzione delle batterie agli ioni di litio oggi è di circa 131 GWh all’anno. Basata sugli impianti annunciati e in costruzione, questa cifra salirà a oltre 400 GWh entro il 2021 con il 73% della capacità globale concentrata in Cina.

 

Le analisi di BNEF prevedono una aumento globale di batterie agli ioni . Domanda che, entro il 2030, supererà i 1.500 GWh. Questi aumenti faranno aumentare i componenti chiavi come cobalto, litio e nichel.

Anche i componenti che compongono le batterie agli ioni di litio ,elettrodi, e elettroliti aumenterà. Un aumento che passerà dai quasi 0,7 milioni di tonnellate nel 2018 a oltre 10 milioni di tonnellate nel 2030.

 

La carenza di cobalto. Una carenza che potrebbe rallentare il rapido “ calare” dei costi delle batterie.

In base ai consumi di cobalto attuali, si presume che nei primi anni del 2020 ci sia una carenza di cobalto. Un rischio, che potrebbe compromettere le vendite di veicoli elettrici a lungo periodo.

Sul lungo periodo, gli analisti  prevedono l’adozione di nuove batterie chimiche.

Nel breve termine , non prevedono rischi per le batterie al litio.

Gli elevati prezzi del litio negli ultimi anni hanno portato a significativi aumenti degli investimenti in nuove capacità. Investistenti, che saranno necesari a partire dal 2020.

 

Un altro fattore di rischio risiede nelle infrastrutture. E più esattamente nella rapidà con cui le infrastrutture di ricarica di diffonderanno.

 

La rapida espansione dei veicoli elettrici ha un profondo effetto sul consumo globale di petrolio.Entro il 2040  saranno 7,3 milioni di barili di petrolio che non verranno consumati.

 

 

 

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